Transit through Darién Cut in half
Between January and October 2024, the number of migrants crossing the Darién jungle decreased by almost half, dropping from 458,000 in 2023 to 286,000 in 2024. Transit through Darién has solidified as a significant route for global migration toward the United States. Although the majority of migrants traversing the jungle come from South America (69% from Venezuela), in 2024, there were 12,000 citizens from China, 4,000 from India, and nearly 9,000 from African countries.
U.S. Southern Border
Fewer Encounters with Unauthorized Migrants
During fiscal year 2024 (October 2023 – September 2024), encounters with unauthorized migrants at the southern border of the United States decreased by 14% compared to the previous year, including a drop of 64% during the second half of the fiscal year. These figures reflect the implementation of new policies that restrict access to the asylum system for irregular migrants and the new channels for regular migration and remote asylum applications established by the government, especially for citizens from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. If these mechanisms were to be eliminated, encounters could return to the high levels seen in previous years.
New nationalities on the southern border of the United States
While non-traditional nationalities continue to emerge among those detained at the southern border, 2024 showed a transformation in the countries represented. Ecuador, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru lead the list, although both Ecuadorians and Brazilians have gradually reduced their participation compared to 2021. This confirms the increase of migrants from other parts of the world (Asia, Africa, and others) crossing Latin America and the Caribbean to reach the U.S.
Returned Migrants
The numbers of returned emigrants to the Northern Central American countries remain stable compared to 2023. As of October this year, 121,000 people have been returned, averaging 12,000 monthly, totaling about 145,000 for 2024, similar to the 150,000 from last year (as of October, 12,873 in El Salvador, 67,547 in Guatemala, and 40,737 in Honduras). The noteworthy aspect this year is the change in the origins of the returned individuals. 81% were returned by the U.S. (an increase of 16%), while 19% were returned by Mexico (a decrease of 42%). Changes in U.S. policy are likely to cause these numbers to rise in 2025.
Asylum in Mexico
Asylum Applications in Mexico
Asylum applications in Mexico have fallen by half, returning to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels after significant growth between 2021 and 2023, when an average of 130,000 applications were received per year, according to data from the Mexican Commission for Refugee Assistance (COMAR). The most significant reductions come from Hondurans (-29%), Haitians (-80%), and Cubans (-7%). As more people fail to reach their goal of arriving in the U.S. and become stranded in Mexico, this number is likely to increase, especially in the event of any further tightening at the U.S. border.
Continued Decrease in Asylum Applications in Costa Rica
As of September, there is likely to be a drop in asylum applications in Costa Rica of around 27% compared to 2023, reaching their lowest level in 7 years, except for the year 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 18,948 applications received in the first nine months of the year indicate a pace that would reach approximately 25,000 for the full year.